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The levies are also likely to reduce America’s economic output, as has happened before. A 2020 study, based on data from 151 countries, including the US, between 1963-2014, found that tariffs have “persistent adverse effects on the size of the pie,” or the gross domestic product of the country imposing them.
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There are a number of possible explanations for this.

One is that, when tariffs are low or non-existent, the country in question can focus on the kind of economic activities where it has an edge and export those goods and services, Gimber told CNN.
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“If you raise tariffs, you’re not going to see that same level of specialization,” he said, noting that the result would be lower labor productivity. “The labor could be better used elsewhere in the economy, in areas where you have a greater competitive advantage.”
Another reason output falls when tariffs are raised lies in the higher cost of imported inputs, wrote the authors of the 2020 study, most of them International Monetary Fund economists.

Fatas at INSEAD suggested the same reason, providing an example: “So I’m a worker and work in a factory. To produce what we produce we need to import microchips from Taiwan. Those things are more expensive. Together, me and the company, we create less value per hour worked.”

Yet another way tariff hikes can hurt the economy is by disrupting the status quo and fueling uncertainty over the future levels of import taxes. That lack of clarity is particularly acute this year, given the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy.

Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business in the US suggest the uncertainty is already weighing on American companies’ willingness to invest. The share of small businesses planning a capital outlay within the next six months hit its lowest level in April since at least April 2020, when Covid was sweeping the globe.

“The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty (including over tariffs) are resolved. It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the federation said.

Whichever forces may be at work, the IMF, to cite just one example, thinks higher US tariffs will lower the country’s productivity and output.

The Department of Justice quickly fired the newly named US attorney in New Jersey on Tuesday after federal judges in the state declined to extend Alina Habba’s interim appointment.

Attorney General Pam Bondi’s announcement came after the district court voted to elevate Desiree Leigh Grace, New Jersey’s first assistant US attorney, to replace the Trump ally.
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“Nonetheless, politically minded judges refused to allow her to continue in her position, replacing Alina with the First Assistant. Accordingly, the First Assistant United States Attorney in New Jersey has just been removed. This Department of Justice does not tolerate rogue judges especially when they threaten the President’s core Article II powers,” Bondi posted on X.

The rapid change-up prompted confusion as to who will lead the top federal prosecutor’s office in the state.

It’s unclear if Grace’s removal is enforceable or whether the district court judges will challenge the move. There’s also some confusion of when Habba’s appointment expires.

Grace’s appointment was set to be “effective July 22, 2025, or ‘upon the expiration of 120 days after appointment by the Attorney General’ of the Interim U.S. Attorney Alina Habba, whichever is later,” according to the order signed by Chief Judge Renee Marie Bumb.
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President Donald Trump appointed Habba to the position on March 24, but she was sworn in on March 28, with department officials arguing that her term doesn’t conclude until Friday. Interim US attorneys are only allowed to serve for 120 days if they are not confirmed by the US Senate or extended indefinitely by the district court in their jurisdiction.

Habba previously served as a spokesperson for the Trump campaign and as a personal attorney for Trump. She represented Trump during his civil fraud trial in 2023 and 2024. After Trump won reelection, Habba served as counselor to the president before Trump tapped her to serve as US attorney.

Trump formally nominated Habba to serve in the position for a four-year term on July 1. Habba’s nomination is still awaiting a vote from the Senate Judiciary Committee before she would advance to the full Senate for a floor confirmation vote.

The president and his legal team have been exploring options for reappointing nominees rejected by the courts, but it is unclear if Habba would accept a reappointment in this case, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche put out a statement on X on Tuesday, saying: “The district court judges in NJ are trying to force out @USAttyHabba before her term expires at 11:59 p.m. Friday.”

“Their rush reveals what this was always about: a left-wing agenda, not the rule of law. When judges act like activists, they undermine confidence in our justice system. Alina is President Trump’s choice to leadand no partisan bench can override that.”

He had previously urged the federal judges in New Jersey to appoint Habba indefinitely on an interim basis while she awaits Senate confirmation, saying she has the “full confidence” of leadership at the Justice Department.

Habba is President Trump’s second US attorney nominee to struggle to receive support from the district court or the Senate Judiciary Committee. In May, the Senate Judiciary Committee decided not to confirm Trump’s controversial pick to lead the DC US attorney’s office, Ed Martin.

It is rare to have multiple candidates fail to receive support from the district court or the Senate Judiciary Committee.